Weather
Beach weather forecast
Fourteen-day forecasts for every beach town we track, with morning, afternoon and evening detail for today and tomorrow. Each figure combines three global forecast models, and the page refreshes itself every hour.
Through the day
Local time at this place
Daily forecast
High and low, chance of rain, strongest wind
Methodology
Sources
Every forecast on this page combines three independent global weather models: the European model run by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the American model run by the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA GFS), and the German model run by the national weather service of Germany (DWD ICON).
Why the models disagree
Each model simulates the atmosphere with its own equations, resolution and starting observations, so their outputs differ. The differences are greatest for rainfall over the Caribbean, where rain is typically localised and brief. The panel at the top of each location presents the three readings side by side; a wide divergence between them indicates low confidence in the forecast.
How the figures are combined
Temperature and wind are the average of the three models. For a period of the day, the temperature is the range of the hourly averages. For a whole day, the high and low are the averages of each model's own daily values, and wind is the average of each model's strongest wind of the day. The weather symbol shows the condition forecast most often across the three models. When two conditions are forecast equally often, the more severe of the two is shown, for example rain rather than cloud.
Chance of rain
Each model gives an hourly probability of measurable rain. The three are averaged hour by hour, and a period shows the highest of its hourly averages, so the figure expresses the probability of rain at some time during the period, not of continuous rain. A daily figure is the average of each model's highest chance that day. Opening "Models" under a period shows each model's own reading; a wide spread usually reflects scattered rainfall whose position and timing the models predict differently.
Times and range
All times are given in the local time of each forecast location. Morning runs from 06:00 to 12:00, afternoon from 12:00 to 18:00 and evening from 18:00 to midnight. The German model provides forecasts up to approximately seven days ahead. Days eight to fourteen are therefore based on the European and American models only, and are marked "2 models".
Places
Global forecast models calculate the weather on a grid of cells several kilometres wide, so beaches a short distance apart receive effectively the same forecast. Beaches in the same town therefore share one forecast point, placed at the centre of their coordinates. Where a town's beaches extend over more than 30 km, the town is divided into separate points, each named after its central beach.
Updates and limits
The page fetches new data at the start of every hour. A chance of rain describes the likelihood of rain at some point in the hour or period, not its duration or strength. Forecast accuracy decreases with lead time; forecasts for the second week indicate a general tendency rather than specific conditions.
Weather data by Open-Meteo.com, licensed under CC BY 4.0.